De ja vu all over again?
Ah April 10th, 2003...what a day it was: the landmark statue of Saddam Hussein in Baghdad's Firdos Square was brought down by Iraqis and U.S. Marines.
All my conservative friends called me (like they do after Ohio State loses to Michigan) to pre-maturely bask in the raving success of the war...to let us libs know that we were just being pansies all along.
Now, one-thousand four-hundred and fifty three U.S. casualties later, it's happening again!
I don't mean to belittle the Iraqi election. It was a clear success and I am happy for the Iraqi people. But before we drink too much Champaign, let's not forget that it is only one hurdle. And being that it is the first hurdle that hasn't been completely tripped on and stumbled over, everyone is cheering like mad. As far as I'm concerned, this week the situation moved from the brink of hopeless to the edge of feasible.
Remember that the Iraqi people didn't select a leader...they selected a 275-member Transitional National Assembly. That was step one.
STEP 2: These guys will elect a state presidency council made up of a president and two deputies.
STEP 3: Those guys will choose a prime minister.
STEP 4: He will select ministers.
STEP 5a: The assembly will vote on the make-up of the government and draft a constitution by 15 August.
STEP 5b: If not enough progress is made on the constitution by 1 August there will be a delay of six months.
STEP 6: The constitution will be submitted to referendum by 15 October.
STEP 7a: If the constitution is approved in October, an election will be held by 15 December and a fully constitutional government will take power by 31 December.
STEP 7b: If the constitution is rejected, there will be a new assembly election by 15 December, and a further year is then allowed for the whole process.
And the hardest part is yet to come..the devil is in the details and my bet is that the Sunnis will not hand over the reins quietly nor will the foreign terrorists retreat any time soon.
So in short, best case senario: the Iraqis will take control of their country in 2006.
If the constitution doesn't pass referendum the first time: then it's 2007.
So today is a day to celebrate, we have temporarily averted complete and utter failure and are well on the way to putting a government in place which will probably be violently opposed by one in five Iraqis...................but please, keep the red-white-and-blue confetti in your pockets kids.
All my conservative friends called me (like they do after Ohio State loses to Michigan) to pre-maturely bask in the raving success of the war...to let us libs know that we were just being pansies all along.
Now, one-thousand four-hundred and fifty three U.S. casualties later, it's happening again!
I don't mean to belittle the Iraqi election. It was a clear success and I am happy for the Iraqi people. But before we drink too much Champaign, let's not forget that it is only one hurdle. And being that it is the first hurdle that hasn't been completely tripped on and stumbled over, everyone is cheering like mad. As far as I'm concerned, this week the situation moved from the brink of hopeless to the edge of feasible.
Remember that the Iraqi people didn't select a leader...they selected a 275-member Transitional National Assembly. That was step one.
STEP 2: These guys will elect a state presidency council made up of a president and two deputies.
STEP 3: Those guys will choose a prime minister.
STEP 4: He will select ministers.
STEP 5a: The assembly will vote on the make-up of the government and draft a constitution by 15 August.
STEP 5b: If not enough progress is made on the constitution by 1 August there will be a delay of six months.
STEP 6: The constitution will be submitted to referendum by 15 October.
STEP 7a: If the constitution is approved in October, an election will be held by 15 December and a fully constitutional government will take power by 31 December.
STEP 7b: If the constitution is rejected, there will be a new assembly election by 15 December, and a further year is then allowed for the whole process.
And the hardest part is yet to come..the devil is in the details and my bet is that the Sunnis will not hand over the reins quietly nor will the foreign terrorists retreat any time soon.
So in short, best case senario: the Iraqis will take control of their country in 2006.
If the constitution doesn't pass referendum the first time: then it's 2007.
So today is a day to celebrate, we have temporarily averted complete and utter failure and are well on the way to putting a government in place which will probably be violently opposed by one in five Iraqis...................but please, keep the red-white-and-blue confetti in your pockets kids.
By Robert - 1/31/2005
11 Comments:
I am interested to see if the claims that getting your food rations were tied to showing up to vote in Iraq. I would bet that there were some overt threats to the withdrawing of basic human needs to force people to support this show election.
In response to my earlier post and bob’s comments, I do have my reasons for jumping so quickly to such a dramatic conclusion. Basically.. these elections have shown, for the first time that I can remember, a majority voice in favor of democracy (within the Middle East). It is my guess that the Arab people of this world are more willing than we think to except an “Americanized” society to some degree. It is only now that we see the desires of a nation without the mask of its leaders. And whether you agree or not with his reasoning, it is George Bush, and his fantastic war mongering, that has provided this.
Social trends, when they involve the majority and are given a degree of momentum, are virtually impossible to stop. With the situation in Iraq, the most powerful forces in this world are in support of the desires of the majority of its citizens. I have a hard time finding pathways to failure.. Nuclear strike maybe? Anyway, it is my belief that once democracy takes hold in Iraq, it will have a huge impact on the rest of the middle east. Between all the trade alliances and treaty pacts that exist within the Arab nations, having a voice of capitalism in the circle will make more difference than all the peace talks and oil summits we could possibly hold.
Basically, without any evidence or data to back me up, Ill say that yesterday may have been a very definitive day in the history of the Middle East and how it relates to the rest of the world.
There are a lot of things that need to happen before absolute praise is deserved. However, it is certainly worth noting that the actions of an aggressive policy have, at the very least, given the Middle East a chance at a desperately needed modernization- a chance that would not have been provided otherwise.
to anoynomus
I know you wish that story would break and yesterdays good results are hard to stomach for you, beause you would rather see Bush look bad at home than America look good abroad, but if what you speculate was true, it would have been reported by some the willing US press or certainly some foreign press. Maybe the people just wanted to vote?
While I can't help but find this post mildly offensive in that it can't seem to resist wanting to cast a shadow on Iraqi's asserting control over their own affairs, I must say that you guys have shown somewhat admirable restraint in comparison to others who have sadly staked their reputation on the Iraq War being a failure.
Just a reminder, it took quite a long time for democracy to take hold in this country, and the enemies of the formation of our democracy were separated from us by oceans. It is going to be a long time before one can truly know whether the Iraq War was a success and to what extent, but the demonstrated will of the Iraqi people in this election is about as positive a sign as one could hope for, especially in light of the fact that we generally hear all of the bad news from Iraq and none of the good news. A reader on instapundit.com pointed out that MSNBC, with no bad news to report w/r/t the elections in Iraq, has chosen to lead with a Michael Jackson story today...after months of leading with Iraq. Not surprising at all.
Chris, I agree with your comments on the possible signifigance of Sunday's election and its potential effects. It was a great day for our soldiers and our nation. Hopefully the troops will be rewarded with a timely return to U.S. soil.
I'm not cheering against democracy, but I find it hard to believe that there isn't another side to this election than the picture of perfection being painted in the press.
It's funny that "anonymous" is willing to make a bet, but not willing to let anyone know who s/he is.
Is anyone less credible than an anonymous poster to a political blog?
chris,
you can't remember a time in the mideast where there has been a strong showing in support of democracy? do you read the papers? what's going on in Palestine? i was just thinking about libya. yeah, they got rid of there wmd's, and we rewarded them by removing the sanctions. so now american oil companies are pouring money into the country. don't you think that woulda been a good chance to promote democracy? no elections - no oil money. couldn't that have been a bush doctrine? alot of talk of freedom and justice, and to little action.
good picture of dorner on the sidebar. is he at a van halen concert in the picture
Bob, i think you are right on, in that, its gone from hopeless to maybe feasible. And hell, that is a great improvement.
We must seize this moment. In additions to the steps the iraqi government must overcome, we must fully rebuild this place. All reports include people still with no power, a destroyed infrastructure, and all sorts of just practical daily life problems.
We must be able to quickly rebuild the country's infrastructure. Bush loves political "capital" and says he is going to use it in the US. Well, he has some in the worlds eyes and in the Iraqis eyes right now....so he must use his "capital" and not fuck it up....like he usually does.
情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情人歡愉用品,情惑用品性哥,情人用品性哥,情趣用品,AIO交友愛情館,情人歡愉用品,美女視訊,情色交友,情人用品性哥,視訊交友,辣妹視訊,美女交友,性愛,嘟嘟成人網,按摩棒,震動按摩棒,微調按摩棒,情趣按摩棒,逼真按摩棒,G點,跳蛋,跳蛋,跳蛋,性感內衣,飛機杯,充氣娃娃,情趣娃娃,角色扮演,性感睡衣,後庭區,SM,潤滑液,情趣禮物,威而柔,香水,精油,芳香精油,自慰,自慰套,性感吊帶襪,情趣用品加盟,情人節禮物,情人節,吊帶襪,辣妹視訊,美女交友,情色交友,成人交友,視訊聊天室,美女視訊,視訊美女,情色視訊,免費視訊聊天,視訊交友,視訊聊天,AIO交友愛情館,嘟嘟成人網,成人貼圖,成人網站,AIO交友愛情館,情色,情色貼圖,情色文學,情色交友,色情聊天室,色情小說,七夕情人節,色情,A片,A片下載,免費A片,免費A片下載,情色視訊,情色電影,色情網站,辣妹視訊,視訊聊天室,情色視訊,免費視訊聊天,視訊聊天,美女視訊,視訊美女,美女交友,美女,情色交友,成人交友,自拍,本土自拍,情人視訊網,視訊交友90739,生日禮物,情色論壇,正妹牆,正妹,成人網站,A片,免費A片,A片下載,免費A片下載,AV女優,成人影片,色情A片,成人論壇,情趣
Post a Comment
<< Home