South Carolina Poll Very Close
The Palmetto Poll was conducted by Clemson University on November 14th - 27th. Sample was 450 Democrats. Notice Hillary's 10 point lead has been cut to a statistical dead heat. Edwards is still a distant third. The most important number form the poll was that 49% of those contacted were undecided compared to 35% in August. That 14 point jump has to have come in large part from the 10% who left Hillary.
Good news for Obama.
By Kyle - 11/30/2007
25 Comments:
The American Research Group also released a poll this week that showed Hillary ahead 45% - 21% over Obama. In their poll, undecided wasn't an option. So, comparing the data of these two polls, it looks like Hillary's lead in some polls is undecided voters. Obama and Edwards are going to continue to pick them up and Hillary has no where to go but down.
These poll reinforce how critical New Hampshire is for Hillary. She can't afford to lose Iowa and New Hampshire. If she does, I believe her campaign will die in South Carolina on January 26th.
Unrelated: Chris Rock introduced Obama at a fundraiser in Harlem last night.
I wanted to add that I believe a lot of Democrats are truly undecided about who they support. Hillary is the candidate that all Democrats already know. Undecided = not Hillary.
As of now, I would agree that "undecided" means not Hillary. That changes once the voting starts. Trends are def. going against her.
Kyle, can you give me three reasons you are pro Obama and 3 reasons you are anti Clinton? Just curious.
Annie,
That question is something like:
Can you give me three reasons that you'd rather eat an apple than a turd?
I am not Kyle, but I will offer mine.
FOR OBAMA:
1) right on Iraq, which shows not only a specific good act, but more importantly shows the bigger narrative that he has good judgement.
2) Willing to stand up to special interest groups (see: teacher unions, auto industry)
3) not polarizing. i never hear Republicans bash him in any real relavant manner. and I would say most Americans, right or left, like him. So he will have a much easier time pulling in independents (not only to vote for him but to voice public support after his election....i.e., "political capital" to spend, as Bush used to say)
AGAINST HILLARY
1) Iraq vote, and recent Iran vote. She doesn't get it. On these 2 crucial issues, she is no different than George W. Bush.
(and then she lies about her true intentions with the Iraq war vote.)
2) She just panders to all the big Democratic interest groups. And she panders to voters with all her "I am tough" crap. This makes me question what she really stands for. I mean, can anyone really say what she stands for most? Health care? Really, because Sicko explained she is an insurance company lapdog now. Fair trade? Umm, she is #1 in Walmart's eyes. Innovation and oil independence? Not really, since she refuses to bother Detroit.
3) Even though she is right on most issues, there is too much hatred against her to get any work done. Just look at the way Hannity/etc attack her every two seconds....does anyone want 4 years of that????
(and yes, when barack takes charge, they will do the same, but the GOP cannot manage to get the hatred up to that level....at least for a few years)
So basically, Hillary is just a robot that spews out Democratic talking points. That's nice.
Barack hits the issues, shows he has better judgement, AND does it in a way that is truly inspirational to many Americans.
Annie,
Allow me to elaborate on my turd analogy and add to Chuck's points. When I look at any candidate, I look at four things:
(1) Declared stance on issues that are important to me.
(2) Experience (not measured just in length of service, but results aka judgment).
(3) Ability to unify the nation and at least curb partisan bickering (which translates to real change).
(4) Sincerity (especially if he/she has shown a willingness to take a principled, politically-risky stand).
Now with regard to the first, there is little difference between any of the viable Dems. Bush is bad. Kids need education. Everyone deserves health care. Ad nauseum.
Between Hilary's war vote (and more importantly her shocking inability to this day to admit that it was a mistake), and her indisputable political baggage (she is one of the most hated figures walking by, I'd guess... 37% of America) she can't hold a candle to Obama in the second or third categories though.
But the truth is, these first three categories are shit-all compared to the fourth. If all we're getting is lip-service from some power-hungry, political animal, then who gives a rat's ass.
I saw Obama speak in Cleveland this summer with Kyle and believe you me, I came with a critical, undecided eye. Standing 20 feet from the man, I had no doubt that he was the genuine article; that he was not being coached by a platoon of handlers, feeding him talking points. For Christ's sake... he took his flag pin off last month and tried to explain why he didn't want to exploit the flag for support! It was a PR disaster. No sane handlers would have let him do that, let alone advise it. But it demonstrates that he's doing what he thinks is right.
I believe that he's seriously serious (as opposed to the standard hardly-seriously serious) about change and anyone who wants to call me naive, go ahead. But I'll point back to his VOCAL opposition to the war at a time when it was unpatriotic and political suicide to lash out at a war-time President in a conflict that 82% of Americans had bought into.
Those are the moments that separate the leaders from the politicians; the Baracks from the Hillarys.
Annie,
Fair question. Here are my answers.
For Obama:
1. He is our best chance to win in 2008.
2. He is authentic. I agree with Chuck and Bob.
3. Iraq, poverty, education policy, energy policy, environmental policy, and how he his raising his campaign money.
Against Hillary:
1. As our nominee, the focus would be on rehashing 1992-2000. This is election should be about the future.
2. She does not energize Democrats and she energizes Republicans.
3. She is our best chance to lose in 2008.
These are abbreviated answers because I have to run to dinner.
You guys make some interesting points. And let me say that I am not pro-Clinton (although I am pro calling her Senator Clinton; I think it is sexist to continue to call her Hillary while we refer to ALL of the other candidates by their last names) nor am I anti-Obama.
In response to Chuck's #3-- I think this is fear, not hatred. It is human nature to gang up on those that scare you the most. Classic campaign strategy. You don't see anyone ganging up on Kucinich, do you? People would hate to see Kucinich as president, but they're not scared that it'll happen.
I definitely dont think its sexist to call Hillary Hillary.
First off, Clinton can mean Bill or Hillary, so the distinction is needed.
Second, I call Barack Barack - see my most recent post.
Third, you have seen Hillary's campaign advertising, right?
So with all due respect, that is completely ridiculous.
Kyle raised a key point above that I neglected: money.
A candidate that runs on 40 million in contributions from big-[fill in the blank], pays back those favors in office, at the expense of average Americans.
A candidate that runs on 40 million in contributions from average Americans, pays back the favor in office, at the expense of big-[fill in the blank].
BTW, The fact that Obama has remained viable and is closing on Hillary, without taking money from lobbyists is completely astounding.
Annie,
I second Chuck. The Obama camp hands out "Obama" signs at rallies. The Clinton camp hands out "Hillary" signs at rallies. No sexism here.
I could be wrong, but I gather from your wording that while not anti-Obama or pro-Clinton, you’re either leaning towards Hillary, or at the very least undecided.
Let me ask you an honest question:
Is it possible that you're being sexist?
That you’re giving Senator Clinton more credit than she deserves because she is a woman?
We’ve given some pretty thorough explanation of why we love Obama. If you lean Hillary (or even hold them as comparable nominees) I’d like to hear some non-gender-based reasons why you think she stacks up.
ohhhh good one bob.
I'm nervous about this primary turning into a conversation on who we don't like, instead of who we like. I'll support whoever the Democratic nominee is, but I think it is still too early to tell who that'll be. I was a Dean fan, and got burned at the very end. I'm holding out this time!
annie,
to me. the nominee/primary phase is more important than anything. and we are empowered to get the best candidate available.
It's still way too early --
Everyone thinks that Clinton has it locked up, or that Obama will start coming up (more so than he already has), and while that may be true, we shouldn't be crowning the winner until all of the votes are counted.
Plus, we still need to think strategically -- if the Republicans nominate someone like Rudy or Romney, then Clinton is by far our best shot.
However, if the Republicans start going for someone like Huckabee, who doesn't have Rudy's baggage and who appeals to moderate and conservative voters, then all of the sudden, Clinton's electability will become the major issue, and Obama, Edwards and (the outside shot) Richardson could then become more viable candidates.
In that scenario, Democratic voters in later states, including Ohio, would have to choose between Clinton and a candidate that would have less negatives, and who would thus be more likeable/electable against someone like Huckabee.
Sincerity (especially if he/she has shown a willingness to take a principled, politically-risky stand).
Robert, Obama has NEVER taken a risky stance on anything! How can you say that he has?? He avoided all controversial votes while in the Illinois legislature.
Russ,
NEVER? How about opposing the invasion of Iraq for starters?
Robert -
The Iraq War??? Are you saying he VOTED against the war?? Dis you forget he wasn't even a member of Congress and did not vote on the joint resolution??? Your point is moot.
Like I said...NO TOUGH DECISIONS HAVE EVER BEEN VOTED ON BY BARACK OBAMA. All style...no substance...and coated with teflon.
And you guys fall for it hook, line and sinker.
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